CMIP5气候模式对未来30年太阳辐射变化的预估研究

使用CMIP5中33个全球气候模式的模拟数据,选择中位数集合方案,分别在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下对2006~2050年全球所有天气条件下地表接收到的太阳辐射、无云条件下地表接收到的太阳辐射、相对湿度、近地层风速、近地层气温和云量的变化进行预估研究。结果表明:1)在RCP8.5情景下,气温的增温率在50°N以北地区最大,达0.12 K/a。同时北半球增温率大于南半球,陆表气温的增温率大于海表气温;2)在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,中国东南部和欧洲中东部地区的地表太阳直接辐射呈现较大正趋势;3)在所选3个区域中,不同RCP情景下地表太阳辐射均呈现正趋势,其中在RCP8.5情景下法国波尔多地表太阳辐射呈现最大正趋势。     

Limitations,challenges, and solution approaches in grid-connected renewable energy systems

In the modern world, only conventional energy resources cannot fulfil the growing energy demand. Electricity is a fundamental building block of a technological revolution. Today, most of the electricity demand is met by the burning of fossil fuels but at the cost of adverse environmental impact. In order to bridge the gap between electricity demand and supply, nonconventional and eco-friendly means of energy generation are considered. Renewable energy systems (RESs) offer an adequate solution to mitigate the challenges originated due to greenhouse gasses (GHG). However, they have an unpredictable power generation with specific site requirements. Grid integration of RESs may lead to new challenges related to power quality, reliability, power system stability, harmonics, subsynchronous oscillations (SSOs), power quality, and reactive power compensation. The integration with energy storage systems (ESSs) can reduce these complexities that arise due to the intermittent nature of RESs. In this paper, a comprehensive review of renewable energy sources has been presented. Application of ESSs in RESs and their development phase has been discussed. Role of ESSs in increasing lifetime, efficiency, and energy density of power system having RESs has been reviewed. Moreover, different techniques to solve the critical issues like low efficiency, harmonics, and inertia reduction in photovoltaic (PV) systems have been presented. Unlike most of the available review papers, this article also investigates the impact of FACTS technology in RESs-based power system using multitype flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controllers. Three simulation models have been developed in MATLAB/Simulink. The results show that FACTS devices help to maintain the stability of RESs integrated power system. This review paper is believed to be of potential benefit for researchers from both the industry and academia to develop better understanding of challenges and solution techniques for REs-based power systems and future research dimensions in this area.     

Modeling California policy impacts on greenhouse gas emissions

This paper examines policy and technology scenarios in California, emphasizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 and 2030. Using CALGAPS, a new, validated model simulating GHG and criteria pollutant emissions in California from 2010 to 2050, four scenarios were developed: Committed Policies (S1), Uncommitted Policies (S2), Potential Policy and Technology Futures (S3), and Counterfactual (S0), which omits all GHG policies. Forty-nine individual policies were represented. For S1–S3, GHG emissions fall below the AB 32 policy 2020 target [427 million metric tons CO₂ equivalent (MtCO₂e) yr⁻¹], indicating that committed policies may be sufficient to meet mandated reductions. In 2030, emissions span 211–428 MtCO₂e yr⁻¹, suggesting that policy choices made today can strongly affect outcomes over the next two decades. Long-term (2050) emissions were all well above the target set by Executive Order S-3-05 (85 MtCO₂e yr⁻¹); additional policies or technology development (beyond the study scope) are likely needed to achieve this objective. Cumulative emissions suggest a different outcome, however: due to early emissions reductions, S3 achieves lower cumulative emissions in 2050 than a pathway that linearly reduces emissions between 2020 and 2050 policy targets. Sensitivity analysis provided quantification of individual policy GHG emissions reduction benefits.     

基于循证的寒地综合医院的人性化设计研究

鉴于众多国家正在普遍使用循证方式去量化体验指数和指导设计,我国也正开始逐步应用循证设计理论,尝试将研究参与到设计的前期循证和实验及使用后评价的工作中去,文中将处于北方寒冷地域的综合医院为研究对象,对其进行循证评价分析指导设计,通过参照用后评价指标,印证循证指导的人性化设计策略的有效性。     

轻质装配式建筑的气候适应表皮原型研究——以温和与寒冷地区实验平台为例

针对我国轻质装配式建筑气候适应性不足的问题，文章立足“建构”与“能量”双重视角，以轻质装配式建筑气候适应表皮为对象，因循“设计—实践—测试”原型路径展开设计研究。进而依托温和与寒冷地区实验平台，对该表皮原型展开夏冬季节的实测检验，最终得到其具体的设计与操作策略。     

Differential graphical games for H∞ control of linear heterogeneous multiagent systems

Differential graphical games have been introduced in the literature to solve state synchronization problem for linear homogeneous agents. When the agents are heterogeneous, the previous notion of graphical games cannot be used anymore and a new definition is required. In this paper, we define a novel concept of differential graphical games for linear heterogeneous agents subject to external unmodeled disturbances, which contain the previously introduced graphical game for homogeneous agents as a special case. Using our new formulation, we can solve both the output regulation and H_∞ output regulation problems. Our graphical game framework yields coupled Hamilton‐Jacobi‐Bellman equations, which are, in general, impossible to solve analytically. Therefore, we propose a new actor‐critic algorithm to solve these coupled equations numerically in real time. Moreover, we find an explicit upper bound for the overall ‐gain of the output synchronization error with respect to disturbance. We demonstrate our developments by a simulation example.     

Understanding e‐Government portal use in rural India: role of demographic and personality characteristics

Electronic government (e‐Government) is one of the most important ways to bridge the digital divide in developing countries. We develop a model of e‐Government portal use. We use various individual characteristics, namely demographics and personality, as predictors of e‐Government portal use. Specifically, our predictors were (1) gender, age, income and education; (2) the Big Five personality characteristics, i.e. extraversion, neuroticism, conscientiousness, agreeableness and openness to experience; and (3) personal innovativeness with information technology. We conducted a field study in a village in India. We collected data from over 300 heads of household. We found support for our model, with most variables being significant and explaining 40% of the variance in e‐Government portal use.     

The Cut and the Continuum: Sophie Ristelhueber’s Anatomical Atlas

From her early photographs of the ruinous aftermath of the Lebanon War in Beirut (1982) to her more recent images of bomb craters in Eleven Blowups (2006), the French artist Sophie Ristelhueber has been intent to maintain, in her own metaphor, ‘the analytical distance of an anatomy lesson’. Exhibiting the evidence of warfare but withholding their explanation, Ristelhueber’s provocative gesture of making art of war, removing human conflicts from their political contexts to render them as still-lifes, ready-mades, earthworks, or surrealist poems, is patently anti-journalistic. In keeping with the artist’s surgical analogy, this article explores Ristelhueber’s aesthetic mode of address as one that shares its fundamental operation with that of photography – namely, to make a cut. Retracing the morphology of recurring imprints and injuries that appear across the terrestrial and corporeal expanses traversed in her work, the article considers the ways in which these cuts pertain to the transformative power of violence and images alike.     

Correlating indoor and outdoor temperature and humidity in a sample of buildings in tropical climates

The incidence of several respiratory viral infections has been shown to be related to climate. Because humans spend most of their time indoors, measures of indoor climate, rather than outdoor climate, may be better predictors of disease incidence and transmission. Therefore, understanding the relationship between indoor and outdoor climate will help illuminate their influence on the seasonality of diseases caused by respiratory viruses. Indoor-outdoor relationships between temperature and humidity have been documented in temperate regions, but little information is available for tropical regions, where seasonal patterns of respiratory viral diseases differ. We have examined indoor-outdoor correlations of temperature, relative humidity (RH), and absolute humidity (AH) over a 1-year period in each of seven tropical cities. Across all cities, the average monthly indoor temperature was 25 ± 3°C (mean ± standard deviation) with a range of 20–30°C. The average monthly indoor RH was 66 ± 9% with a range of 50–78%, and the average monthly indoor AH was 15 ± 3 g/m³ with a range of 10–23 g/m³. Indoor AH and RH were linearly correlated with outdoor AH when the air conditioning (AC) was off, suggesting that outdoor AH may be a good proxy of indoor humidity in the absence of AC. All indoor measurements were more strongly correlated with outdoor measurements as distance from the equator increased. Such correlations were weaker during the wet season, especially when AC was in operation. These correlations will provide insight for assessing the seasonality of respiratory viral infections using outdoor climate data, which is more widely available than indoor data, even though transmission of these diseases mainly occurs indoors.     

Large lakes in climate models: A Great Lakes case study on the usability of CMIP5

Large lakes have an impact on regional weather. In addition, they can be both sensitive to and influence regional climate changes. In the climate models that are used to investigate future climate changes, lakes are greatly simplified and sometimes absent. At the regional scale, this can have strong implications for the quality of the model information about the future. Through our work with climate information users in the Laurentian Great Lakes region, we have found that basic credibility of the information requires the underlying climate models simulate lake-atmosphere-land interactions. We are not aware of efforts within the scientific community to make known how individual large lakes are represented in models and how those representations translate to the quality of the data for particular regions. We share our framework for identifying how the Laurentian Great Lakes are represented in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) version 5 climate models. We found that most CMIP5 models do not simulate the Great Lakes in a way that captures their impact on the regional climate, which is a credibility issue for their projections. We provide a perspective on the usability of CMIP5 for practitioners in the Great Lakes region and offer recommendations for alternative options.